STOCHASTIC METHODS FOR FORECASTING SALES OF FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS

Abstract

The problem of formulating accurate sales forecasts of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) is related to the issues of planning of goods distribution, supply chain management and is important from the point of view of the development of theory within the discipline of management sciences and quality, as well as practical applications. Solving this problem requires developing research on methods of forecasting due to the growing requirements of the businessmen, who can be satisfied using in this field methods known from various fields and scientific disciplines. The objective of this article is to present one of the directions of development of forecasting methods resulting from the use of selected stochastic methods with particular emphasis on Markov chains. The considerations are presented on the example of short-term forecasting, characteristic for products with high inventory turnover rates. After presenting preliminary comments on the issues of forecasting and planning in supporting decision-making in enterprises, the currently used methods of sales prediction are briefly characterized. Next, attention is focused on the stochastic methods of forecasting FMCG products, among which the most attention was devoted to methods based on Markov chains. The article ends with remarks regarding the possibility of further developing this kind of study.